The upcoming fight between Sugar Shane Mosley (38 y/o, with a record of 46 wins, 39 by knockout, 5 losses, and 1 no contest) and Floyd Mayweather (33 y/o, with a perfect record of 40 wins, 25 by knockout, and no losses) should prove to be interesting. Though Mosley is going into the fight as a 5-1 underdog to the ever popular and confident Mayweather, I believe that it is too soon to count Mosley completely out.
Mosley the Underdog
In January 2009, Mosley was a 4-1 underdog going into his fight with Antonio Margarito who was the WBA Welterweight champion at the time. Margarito was coming off an 11th round decimation of Miguel Cotto, the same Miguel Cotto that Mosley lost to prior by unanimous decision. Mosley entered the fight, recently hearing about his wife’s decision to file for a divorce and as a 4-1 underdog, but to the surprise of many skeptics and critics, Mosley annihilated Margarito over 8 brutal rounds, pounding the iron-jawed champion with hard shots to the body and vicious hooks upstairs. The fight was stopped by a brutal TKO in the 8th round, with Mosley becoming the new WBA Welterweight champion, silencing the critics and doubters. He looks to do it again on May 1st against Floyd Mayweather.
Game plan
In terms of a game plan, Nazim Richardson, Mosley’s trainer who trained him for his fight against Margarito, has alluded to the fact that too many fighters have resided themselves to chasing Mayweather in order to crowd him and turn the fight into a brawl, and that it may not be the best tactic against Mayweather. Jose Luis Castillo, in his first encounter with Mayweather, demonstrated this tactic well and nullified Mayweather’s slick boxing skills by turning the fight into a brawl, with Castillo landing far more power-punches overall than Mayweather. Since then, many fighters have tried to use the same brawling tactic against Mayweather with minimal success. Many fans can remember the bout between Ricky Hatton and Floyd Mayweather where Hatton attempted to press forward and swarm Mayweather, unfortunately falling victim to numerous pop shots and hard counters on his way in. Another bout that may come to mind is the fight between Oscar De La Hoya and Mayweather in which De La Hoya fought well initially, utilizing his good jab. However as the fight progressed, De La Hoya abandoned the game plan was goaded into a brawl, ultimately losing a split decision.
It seems natural to assume that brawling Mayweather is the only way to beat him, as his slick defense and boxing intelligence is superb, allowing him to stand in front of fighters, block or dodge any punches, and in turn land hard counters, lead right hands, and lead left hooks at will. But time and time again, boxers have tried to box Mayweather with mild success and they have tried to brawl Mayweather, more often than not getting torn apart by Mayweather’s perfectly timed counter punches. So how does one go about defeating the defensive master?
Breakdown
In order to get a better assessment of the situation it’s necessary to look at the strengths and weaknesses of the two fighters.
Mosley’s Strengths: good hand speed, power in both hands, good stamina, good chin
Mosley’s Weaknesses: ineffective jab, exposes himself when he throws power shots, in general, keeps his shoulders relaxed and hands a little lower than normal, exposing his chin and temples.
Mayweather’s Strengths: great hand speed, excellent timing, good chin (arguably), great defense
Mayweather’s Weaknesses: Susceptible to straight shots down the pipe.
What Each Fighter Must Do to Win
Mayweather doesn’t really need to do anything in particular to win. He just needs to fight the same way he fights in every fight, relying on his tight defense, well-timed counter punches, leading Mosley into lead left hooks and straight right hands. This is assuming that Mosley fights how he usually does, pawing with his jab to set up his big right hand hand shot, following up with a flurry of hard hooks and straights. While Mosley can box when he wants to, he has been known for approaching his opponent rather straight on, with his gloves low, which adds to his power but also leaves him open for a counter-punch. The big punch to watch out for will most likely be Mayweather’s left hook which is arguably faster than Mosley’s and will probably hit first if both fighters throw at the same time.
Mosley must do much more to win, as no one has ever beaten Mayweather in the ring, so there is no real proven game plan on how to defeat him. In my opinion, Mosley needs keep the fight in the center of the ring (contrary to common belief), and rotate to the left, using a sharp left jab to pepper away at Mayweather. By moving to the left, Mosley will avoid Mayweather’s speedy left hook, and Mayweather will not be in position to throw a good right straight. The jabs serve a dual purpose of scoring points with the judges as well as disrupting Mayweather’s timing. If Mayweather chooses to tighten his guard and fight in the pocket, Mosley can either continue to jab away, or go for some hard body shots. I believe Mosley’s power is strong enough to wear down Mayweather’s guard, but not completely break it, as he did to Margarito. I feel that Mosley needs to concentrate on hitting Mayweather in the body because Mayweather has proven very difficult to hit in the face flush (on the few occasions I’ve seen Mayweather his clean, it is usually while he is moving back or at least stationary, lessening the impact of the blow). Mayweather also received a rib injury during sparring, prior to his last match with Juan Manuel Marquez, and I believe that might indicate that he is not used to taking hard shots to the body. By going downstairs early in the fight, Mosley may be able to slow down Mayweather just a fraction of a second, which is all it takes for him to land a hard left or right hand. Mosley is slightly taller than Mayweather, so his chopping right hand May be able to come down over Mayweather’s elevated left shoulder, but this is an incredibly risky shot, which would leave Mosley wide open to eat a counter right uppercut.
If Mosley opts to take a safer approach, I believe that, rather than going for power shots, Mosley can stay on the outside and pepper away with his longer jabs. While the chances are slim, if Mosley can accurately bait Mayweather into throwing a lead right hand and counter with his own uppercut, he may be able to stun Mayweather just enough to land some good hard shots which is all it takes to turn the tide of the match, as demonstrated in Mosley’s match with Margarito. Despite the fact that Mosley was dominating the action, it wasn’t until he grazed Margarito with a counter uppercut followed by a vicious left and right, that Margarito truly had his fate sealed.
The main things Mosley has to do is keep up his intensity, keeping the fight at his pace, utilize his jab, rotate to the left, mix up body shots and head shots, and not get goaded into a brawl.
Mayweather just needs to do this thing, as usual.
Prediction
If things went ideally for Mosley, I see Mosley beating Mayweather by split decision or unanimous decision, with Mosley taking the first 2 or 3 rounds, Mayweather speeding up and taking the next 4-5, and then Mosley finishing strong.
What will most likely happen is that Mosley will start off sticking to his game plan, catching Mayweather with a couple good shots every round, but it will be Mayweather who will dictate the pace and utilize his defense to land the cleaner, more accurate shots. In the later rounds, Mosley will become frustrated, charging in with his head high, eating counters for the last couple rounds, leading Mayweather to a tough, but unanimous decision victory.
