Upcoming Fight: Miguel Cotto vs Yuri Foreman on June 5th

On June 5th, three-time, two weight class, former world champion Miguel Cotto (34-2-0, 27 KO) squares off against WBA super-welterweight champion Yuri Foreman (28-0-0, 8 KO, 1 NC) in Yankee Stadium. This will be Cotto's first fight since his devastating loss to 7 weightclass world champion Manny Pacquiao last November, and it will be against a younger, taller, and arguably stronger fighter. While this fight has not garnished as much attention from the boxing community as one might have expected, it should prove to be an interesting fight nonetheless, and it will definitely be an important fight in the careers of these two fighters.

The Lowdown

Miguel Cotto
The vultures have begun to circle on Miguel Cotto, as his career momentum seems to have dissipated following his utter destruction at the hands of both Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao. Entering into his fight with Antonio Margarito, Cotto was the undefeated WBA welterweight champion, coming off a warpath, leaving in his wake a trail of top light-welterweight and welterweight fighters including Sugar Shane Mosley, Carlos Quintana, Kermit Cintron, "Super" Zab Judah, and Paulie "The Magic Man" Malignaggi. While Cotto was known for his relentless offensive pressure and hard body punches, the tables were turned during his fight with Margarito and Cotto was forced to backpedal, constantly using lateral motion and superior boxing during the first half of the fight to elude and frustrate his taller, slower opponent. However, despite his best efforts, Cotto soon found himself on the receiving end of his signature fighting style, with his back against the ropes and hard body shots and uppercuts tearing through his guard. In the 11th round, Cotto's corner threw in the towel, giving Cotto his first career loss, leaving him a thoroughly beaten man, his face bloody, swollen, and unrecognizable, his body and spirit broken. After his loss to Margarito however, Cotto showed his resilient spirit by coming back for a relatively easy win over Michael Jennings for the vacant WBO Welterweight title followed by a questionable split decision victory against top welterweight contender Joshua Clottey in his first title defense. While some claimed that Cotto was back, many analysts, including 4 time trainer of the year Freddie Roach, saw Cotto's lackluster performances as a sign that something was missing from Cotto, that he was a broken fighter. Cotto's brutal 11th round TKO loss to Manny Pacquiao in November 2009 did not help to mitigate the shroud of doubts surrounding Cotto's physical and mental condition, and as he prepares to fight against Yuri Foreman, many analysts are hoping for some answers as to whether Miguel Cotto is still fit to compete against the top echelon of boxing.

Yuri Foreman
The 29 year old Brooklyn native was raised in Israel and by winning the WBA super-welterweight title from Daniel Santos in November 2009, Foreman became the first Israeli boxing world champion. An aspiring rabbi, Foreman employs a controlled fighting style, utilizing footwork, solid combinations, and effective counterpunching to control the ring and win decision victories. Although Foreman is unbeaten in his professional career, his style has been branded as boring by many fans, and his resume is currently rather lacking in high caliber opponents. There were talks in January 2010 for a fight between Manny Pacquiao and Yuri Foreman which could have possibly bolstered Pacquiao legacy by allowing him to become the first 8 weightclass world champion, but negotiations never panned out. Now Foreman has another formidable opponent laid out before him in Miguel Cotto, and it will give him a chance to add a notable 3 time world champion to his resume.


Fight Breakdown
Cotto has an uphill struggle before him. Perhaps he will come out as a different fighter now that he is being trained by world class trainer Emmanuel Steward (who also trained Tommy Hearns, Wladmir Klitschko, and Lennox Lewis), but if he performs as he did in his last few fights, Cotto will most likely not be able to defeat Foreman. Foreman sports a height and reach advantage and Cotto has never proven himself to be effective against taller fighters. Foreman also uses footwork to his advantage which, combined with his reach advantage, will allow him to control the fight with his jab and long range combinations.


Cotto's Keys to Victory
1) Use Pressure: While Foreman is the larger fighter, he has never been known to be overly aggressive in his fights. If Cotto can land some hard punches early on to gain Foreman's respect, he may be able to force Foreman to backpedal, not allowing the heavier champion to plant his feet and throw hard shots.

2) Counter Punch Effectively: Even if Cotto is able to pressure Foreman and force him backwards, Foreman has a longer reach and will be able to throw punches from outside of Cotto's range. Cotto must press forwards while employing effective head movement to slip past Foreman's long jabs and land hard counter punches in return. Cotto must make sure that he is not caught reaching for counter-punches however, as Foreman is also a skilled counter-puncher.

3) Cut off the Ring: This can sometimes be a fool's endeavor, but it may prove to be a worthy gamble. If Cotto can trap Foreman on the ropes or in the corner, he may be able to land some hard left hooks to the body of Foreman, effectively slowing down the champion's footwork. After enough left hooks to the body, Cotto can opt to go upstairs and throw the left hook to the head. While trapping Foreman on the ropes or corner is ideal, Cotto has to be weary as Foreman is sure to be waiting for the left-hooks, ready with his own counter-uppercut.

Even if Foreman decides to go on the offensive, as long Cotto can counter-punch effectively, just as he did for the first half of the Margarito fight, he should be able to stay safe and steal a decision victory.


Foreman's Keys to Victory
1) Use Footwork: Foreman should use his superior footwork to circle to the left and throw his long jab. This will keep him out of Cotto's range and it will allow him to earn points, win rounds, and possibly cause cuts and swelling on Cotto's fragile face. Circling to the left will also allow Foreman to stay away from Cotto's powerful left hook.

2) Counter Punch Effectively: Both fighters need to counter-punch if they want to win. Foreman needs to use his footwork to dance away from Cotto while landing hard jabs, which will frustrate the smaller man and force him to reach for the champion. Foreman needs to capitalize on these opportunities, punishing Cotto for overextending himself with hard counter-punches.

3) Land Hard Early: Foreman needs to land some hard punches early on, to ensure that Cotto respects his punching power. Cotto has a habit of walking opponents down and destroying them in devastating fashion when he does not respect their punching power. Foreman needs to hit Cotto hard in the early rounds, causing him to hesitate and think twice about coming forward to cut off the ring.



Punch of the Night
Neither of these two fighters have one-punch knockout power, but they will most likely have one punch that will make or break their night.

Cotto- Left Straight: Excuse me? Not the left hook? Yes, I believe that Cotto will most likely use his left hook to great success, but if I had to choose another punch, I would say Cotto's left straight. This is a punch that is not often touched upon by the commentators, but Cotto oftentimes switches to southpaw stance while advancing and lands a hard left straight down the line (If you don't know what I'm talking about watch his first knockdown of Paulie Malignaggi). Foreman will most likely be watching for the left hook to the body, but Cotto's left straight down the pipe will most likely catch Foreman by surprise as he is retreating.

Foreman- Left Jab: This is probably a little more predictable. He won't be dealing any major damage, but the jab combined with his footwork is what will seal the deal for the young champion. If he can just use his footwork and jab, he will have a relatively easy night ahead of him. If he can't use, or chooses not to use, his jab and footwork, he will have a hell of a night and an awful morning after.


Prediction
I predict that Foreman will win by unanimous decision or late round TKO. Foreman definitely has the skill and power to put away Miguel Cotto, but it will decide on how aggressive he decides to be. If he chooses to be more aggressive, I believe that he can stun Cotto with a hard combination and pounce on his with a flurry of hard punches to put him away in the later rounds. Cotto seems to have taken too much damage over his career and his mental game is questionable. There is no doubt that he still possesses the spirit of a warrior, but his mind and body may just be too worn down to put away the young, unbeaten champion.

If Cotto does win, he willl have to systematically breakdown Foreman, landing hard counter-punches, forcing Foreman into a corner, and then working his body with hard left hooks. I do not see Cotto winning a decision, but if he does win, it will most likely be by late round KO, most likely a body shot KO.